The future prospects for alcohol fuels are generally optimistic. They represent an important alternative during the energy transition phase, but also face challenges in terms of cost and technology. Green alcohols, however, have particularly broad growth potential. A detailed analysis follows:
Core Support for Optimistic Development Prospects
Dual Driving Forces of Policy and Dual Carbon Targets
In 2026, my country's Government Work Report included "green fuels" for the first time. The 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly proposed the development of green hydrogen-ammonia-methanol. The National Development and Reform Commission listed "hydrogen production by water electrolysis coupled with carbon dioxide synthesis of green methanol" as an encouraged project. Various regions have also introduced supporting policies to promote green alcohols for marine and automotive use, bringing clear policy dividends to the industry.
Meanwhile, high-emission sectors such as heavy industry, ocean shipping, and long-haul heavy-haul transportation, which are difficult to fully electrify, urgently need low-cost, low-carbon liquid fuels to replace fossil fuels. Alcohols precisely fill this market gap. In the shipping sector alone, global demand for green methanol is projected to reach 50 million tons by 2030, with a market size exceeding US$200 billion.
Adapting to my country's Energy Endowment and Ensuring Energy Security
my country's energy structure is characterized by "abundant coal, scarce oil, and limited gas," with a long-standing dependence on imported oil exceeding 70%. Relying on its existing mature coal chemical system, my country has built the world's largest and most complete methanol production system. By the end of 2025, domestic methanol production capacity reached 116 million tons, accounting for approximately 60% of global capacity, with complete self-sufficiency and control over everything from production to application.
In the long term, leveraging my country's abundant wind and solar resources and 2 billion tons/year of agricultural and forestry waste resources, large-scale production of green methanol could theoretically reach 1 billion tons annually, directly replacing nearly 500 million tons of imported crude oil, fundamentally alleviating the energy security pressure of dependence on imported oil and gas.
With the technology gradually maturing, cost reduction is expected. Currently, my country has achieved independent breakthroughs in key technologies such as modified methanol and carbon dioxide-to-methanol synthesis across the entire chain. As the costs of photovoltaic and wind power decrease and the core equipment for electrolyzers is localized, the cost of green methanol continues to decline: when the cost of green electricity drops to 0.15 yuan/kWh and the unit price of carbon dioxide is 400 yuan/ton, the cost of green methanol can be reduced to approximately 3,800 yuan/ton, gradually approaching the cost level of traditional methanol.